Fall chum returns continue to taper after peaking over the past 2 weeks. Deep Inlet and Bear Cove returns are now a combined 112% of forecast and this week topped a total return of 2 million chum. The trollers continue on their record setting harvest and are now tantalizingly close to one million troll caught chum, between Deep Inlet and Crawfish Inlet returns, with a total of 970k chum harvested (820k DI & 150k CI). While the trollers have been in record setting territory for several weeks, breaking the million mark would be a historic milestone. Based upon the dwindling numbers of trollers participating in the fishery, breaking the million mark is seeming less likely with each passing day. Total commercial value of chum to the troll fleet is now over $8m. The total NSRAA commercial value to all gear in 2022 is going to be the 2nd highest on record. This year will top $20 million for the second time in the history of NSRAA. Only behind the 2018 record return to the Crawfish Inlet project. This years value is being driven by decent returns, but also more importantly, an increase in the price per pound being paid, primarily on chum, to the fishing fleet.
This past week we have wrapped up our chinook egg takes, those are now compete and all of our program goals have been met. The fall chum salmon egg take at Medvejie continues and we are currently at 25% of the 90m goal and are seeing a 50/50 male/female ratio at the hatchery. We are closely watching the Bear Cove recruitment and based upon current numbers still need an additional 20-30k additional brood stock chum. The numbers in Bear Cove continue to build and this rainy forecast will likely bring in additional recruitment from those Bear Cove bound fish still milling in Eastern Channel and Sitka Sound. We will assess chum numbers early next week in Bear Cove to determine if there is an adequate amount. IF there appears to be a shortfall, back up options will be developed. Most likely that would entail setting some fish aside in net pens in Crawfish Inlet as an insurance policy against any shortfall.
Over the last several weeks we have watched the Bear Cove chum numbers SLOWLY climb. Looking deeper into our otolith information it appears that this year there has been an interception rate of Bear Cove bound fish of~90%. This compares to the recent long-term average of 67%, with last year coming in at 77%. The high interception rate this year is what is currently driving our challenges with sufficient brood stock as 600k+ Bear Cove fish have been harvested. While it is still early, we are also becoming concerned if we will see this higher interception rate on our coho return. Very few have been seen in Bear Cove and the Deep Inlet coho return is looking extremely weak this year. Often when we have coho shortfalls at Bear Cove we will utilize Deep Inlet as a backup. With such a weak return to Deep Inlet there will likely be few available there.
Coho cost recovery has begun at Mist Cove and a little over 100k lbs has been harvested with a current sex ratio at 65% male in the cove. It appears we will have the best coho return in quite a few years to Deer Lake. A little over 20k have been harvested by the troll fleet and the catch is continuing. There are also early indications that the Hidden Falls coho return may see a similar uptick in survival and returns.
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