It is too early to predict what will happen with the chum return at either Hidden Falls or Deep Inlet. There have been years at Hidden Falls when there were only 8,000 fish caught by the week ending June 28 which ended up with total returns for those years at 2.7 m (’99) and 3.1 million (’00) chum salmon. There have also been years when catches have been in excess of 350,000 by June 28 and the run ended up at 1.3 million (2013). Total catch to date at Hidden Falls is 43,000 chum with one opening to go for the week. Therefore, it is likely the week will end behind the twenty year average of 150,000.
Deep Inlet is starting off strong with the total chum harvest at 65,000 with several gillnet and seine openings to go before the week closes out. This compares to the twenty year average of 27,000 through statistical week 26. Both the historical average and this year’s catch to date are far behind the 2013 cumulative catch of 192,000 (the largest cumulative catch by week 26 on record, although not the highest total return by a long measure). Chum size is large at both Hidden Falls and Deep Inlet, about 10 lbs and 9 lbs respectively. Scales have not been read yet but these early fish most likely have a high proportion of 5 year olds.
Given the poor performance of two of the three chum runs in PWS and slow start at Kendrick, I am nervous about what the next week will bring. The anxiety is right at historic average, which is a poor indicator of anything.
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